Hi, Im Kaci. I play too much Kingdom Hearts. If you've got questions, I've got answers.

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I have had terrible luck for twenty five years, as I have saved it all for this moment.

Which do you think is the better deal: 3 medals for 600 jewels or 10 medals for 3000 jewels? I'm asking cause I'm caught up with the story so for now the only way I can get jewels is through daily login. But I need stronger medals if I actually want to progress through the story without having to use jewels to continue.

This is a great question, and one that I’ve been grappling with for a long time.  The ultimate goal of KHUX in terms of medal pulls is to get guilted Epic and Premium medals.  This means getting seven of the same medal, which can be a real pain.  So figuring out the optimum way of getting epics is paramount.

First and foremost, the strong cards - Premiums - are only available during Epic Medal Carnivals (EMC).  This means you should NEVER spend jewels outside of those times.  EMCs also give guaranteed epics in the 10 pull, which is pretty important.

So let’s get into statistics.

For the 10 pull, you get 10 medals for 3000 jewels.  You are guaranteed two 5* and eight 4* during the EMC.  One of those ten will be an epic, guaranteed.  I believe this can take any of the ten spots.

From here on in, everything is theoretical.  

Fact of the matter is, Square probably has these things weighted against us.  I’ll prove this later.  But the statistics should still hold up because we are using an equivalent measurement of analysis: that is, we are evaluating the different draws based on 3*+, 4*+, and 5*+ meaning the same thing across deals.  There’s a chance that Square changes the draw tables/rates between deals, but I’m hoping they don’t hate us that much.

For the purposes of this analysis, we are going to assume there is an equal chance to acquire any medal in the pool.  Here’s our operational definitions:

3*+ means you can get any three, four, or five star in the medal pool (which right now is 215 medals).

4*+ means you can get any four or five star in the medal pool (which right now is 156 medals).

5*+ means you can get any five star in the medal pool (which right now is 97 medals).

Add all 11 premiums to these definitions because of the EMC.

38 medals are epic.  11 are premiums.  So you have a 49 of 108 (or 45.4%) chance or a 49 of 167 (or 29.3%) chance.  That’s two rolls at 45.4% and eight rolls at 29.3%. (.454*2) + (.293*8) = 3.25 epic medals on average.

But EMC gives a free epic!  That epic, if it takes the place of a 4*+ means you’ll receive (.454*2) + (.293*7) + (1.00*1) = 3.96 epic medals on average, or if it takes the place of a 5*+ you’ll receive (.454*1) + (.293*8) + (1.00*1) = 3.80 epic medals on average.  Since the chance of an epic medal taking the place of a 5*+ is 20% (2/10) then we have (.454*1.8) + (.293*7.2) + (1.00*1) = 3.93 epic medals on average

Remember how I said the draws were weighted against us?  Here’s the math on the Premium medals.  You have 11/167 (6.6%) or 11/108 (10.2%) chance, then 11/49 (22.4%) for the epic roll.  (.066*7.2) + (.102*1.8) + (.224*1) = 0.88 Premium medals on average.  That means you should get one almost every single 10 pull.  But you don’t.  So obviously the rates for Premiums are lower than 1:1.  The rates for Epics could also be lower, which could explain why you don’t get ~4 epics per pull.  But the lower ratio would apply to both the 600 medal pull and the 3k medal pull, so for the purposes of this discussion, it’s irrelevant.

On to the Daily Deal.  You get two 3*+ and one 4*+ for 600 jewels.  This means (after five days) you get ten 3*+ and five 4*+, totaling 15 medals.  Again, 38 epics and 11 premiums.  So you have 49 of 226 (or 21.7%) chance or 49 of 167 (29.3%).  That’s ten rolls at 21.7% and five rolls at 29.3%. (.217*10) + (.293*5) = 3.64 epic medals on average.

There’s no guarantees on Daily Deals so there’s no further calculations.

So it seems like the 10 medal pull is the clear winner!

But!  There’s other deals too.  Let’s take a look at the new Daily Summer Deal.  That’s two 3*+ and a 6*!  We already figured out that 3*+ during EMC has a 21.7% chance at an Epic.  What about that 6*?  Well, there are 108 6* medals in the pool, including premiums.  49 of 108 is 45.4%, or the exact same as a 5*+.  (.217*10) + (.454*5) = 4.44 epic medals on average! So technically that’s the best one right now, though it doesn’t guarantee anything and it’s more of a gamble.  Also, when the EMC ends, Premiums might get removed from the deal, which means that a lot of its worth fades too.

So let’s sum up:

~Only spend jewels during Epic Medal Carnivals!!
~If you’re new or really hurting for some medals, the daily deal has you covered for quantity, but not quality.
~10 medal pulls have a better ratio of Epic medals, which is your long-term goal.
~Often new medals are guaranteed in 10 pulls (see Pooh/Piglet/Owl or Musketeer medals) which can be helpful when going after specific medals.
~Sometimes you are guaranteed TWO epic medals from 10 pulls (see Roxas/Axel/Xion event, where you were guaranteed an Org. member /and/ another epic)
~Nothing is exclusive to 10 pull anymore, even if the odds are slightly in its favor

Good luck and have fun!

tl;dr 10 pull

<3 KCM

Jungle Book Event

kingdomheartsfaq:

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New event!  Now this just came up, so a lot of this might be speculation, but this is how it works.

Randomly, the Jungle Book Event mission will show up for 30 minutes.  This is just like the munny mission, but hopefully with better timers.  When you do the mission - which is very easy - you’ll get either a Mowgli & Baloo medal or a King Louie medal.  Always 5 stars.  Sometimes multiples, but never both in the same 30 minute mission.  You can do the mission as many times as you want, but you’ll keep getting one or the other.

It seems there’s also a rare chance for a SUPER EGG to spawn, which gives something like 5-7 medals!!

But in order to turn that 5* into a 6*, you need the /other/ one.  That is, by combining Mowgli & Baloo and King Louie together, you create Mowgli & Pals - as pictured above.  Mowgli & Pals is really cool.  It’s a 6* buff medal and it costs four gauges, but it’s the only one in the game so far to give a strength buff AND a heal AND an Esuna.  Plus, it takes almost no effort to get.  And guilting it is a literal cakewalk.  Probably easier than a cake walk.

Here’s what you do:
~Do a mission as many times as you can in 30 minutes or until you have 7 of one medal.
~Combine those medals together into two 5* medals: one with 3 bubbles and one with two.
~Wait
~When the next mission comes up again - which I’m assuming will have the OTHER medal - get two of them.
~Turn your two 5* into two 6*. (The 5* have to be level 80 first!!)
~Combine 6*

It’s a Tier 2 guilt too!!  It’s a buff card, but it’s a quick, easy thing to do.  Also, the 5* medals might be worth holding onto, since they have different abilities.  Mowgli & Baloo is strength boost + Cure for three gauges. King Louie is Cure + Esuna.

Anyway!  Enjoy the event.  If anything here proves incorrect I’ll fix it later!

Ends 9/5!!

<3 KCM

Update: it seems like the event comes up every hour and a half-ish and both can come up at once. In the mission select whichever medal is in the rewards screen is the one you will receive.

Jungle Book Event

image

New event!  Now this just came up, so a lot of this might be speculation, but this is how it works.

Randomly, the Jungle Book Event mission will show up for 30 minutes.  This is just like the munny mission, but hopefully with better timers.  When you do the mission - which is very easy - you’ll get either a Mowgli & Baloo medal or a King Louie medal.  Always 5 stars.  Sometimes multiples, but never both in the same 30 minute mission.  You can do the mission as many times as you want, but you’ll keep getting one or the other.

It seems there’s also a rare chance for a SUPER EGG to spawn, which gives something like 5-7 medals!!

But in order to turn that 5* into a 6*, you need the /other/ one.  That is, by combining Mowgli & Baloo and King Louie together, you create Mowgli & Pals - as pictured above.  Mowgli & Pals is really cool.  It’s a 6* buff medal and it costs four gauges, but it’s the only one in the game so far to give a strength buff AND a heal AND an Esuna.  Plus, it takes almost no effort to get.  And guilting it is a literal cakewalk.  Probably easier than a cake walk.

Here’s what you do:
~Do a mission as many times as you can in 30 minutes or until you have 7 of one medal.
~Combine those medals together into two 5* medals: one with 3 bubbles and one with two.
~Wait
~When the next mission comes up again - which I’m assuming will have the OTHER medal - get two of them.
~Turn your two 5* into two 6*. (The 5* have to be level 80 first!!)
~Combine 6*

It’s a Tier 2 guilt too!!  It’s a buff card, but it’s a quick, easy thing to do.  Also, the 5* medals might be worth holding onto, since they have different abilities.  Mowgli & Baloo is strength boost + Cure for three gauges. King Louie is Cure + Esuna.

Anyway!  Enjoy the event.  If anything here proves incorrect I’ll fix it later!

Ends 9/5!!

<3 KCM

Weekend Warrior Raid Event - Lux Changes

So the weekend event from two weeks ago - that crab that is stupid hard to kill - is back!  And thankfully, it’s not quite so terrible.

The boss still has 10 million HP.  So yeah, that’s a lot of time-wasting.  With four people it was about a half-hour endeavor.  Like last time, killing the boss gives 50 event coins, and 10 for All Points and 10 for MVP/Host.  Since the board takes 140 coins to complete, that’s two or three kills.

The event board isn’t any better than last month either.  It includes:
~Chip +85 total (two +5, three +25)
~Dale +85 total (two +5, three +25)
~Cid -1 cost
~6* Munny for completion
~No title

Then why is it better this time around?

Lux rewards actually exist now!  Last time, you’d be lucky to pull 400 lux per attempt on the boss.  This time, you’re looking at ~20k lux with basic attack and ~45k with special. (Those were my numbers anyway - it’s based on the damage dealt.) The weak points also give less lux than the main body.
**Note: this was not during Double Lux times, but it still said x2 Lux, so I’m not sure what’s up with that**

My roommate leveled from 106 to 170 on two bosses.  Alternatively, I went from 212 to 216.

So is the event worth it?  Probably not.  But it’s a great way to farm lux if you haven’t hit 250.  And you get +85/+85 along the way.

Have a great weekend!  Enjoy the Mega God Crab!

<3 KCM

High Score Challenge: Illustrated Terra!

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This is by far the most enjoyable HSC yet.  Unfortunately, we’re met with the same issue as the Org XIII HSC: all the multipliers are pay to win.  During this Epic Medal Carnival you have the chance to get the amazing Illustrated Terra (+2 Strength for 1 turn + high damage) and the new Pooh, Piglet, and Owl medals, which are really good buffs and debuffs!  But none are guaranteed… Actually!  It looks like you ARE guaranteed to draw Piglet, Pooh, Owl, or Illustrated Terra!  There was confusion because this was not announced in Notices like it has been in the past.  But at least for now, as of Friday morning, you are guaranteed one of the four.

Here’s the multiplier list:

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(I’m really sour with this list, because I haven’t gotten Cloud, Roxas, Sora, or Riku from the last three events. >_<)

So then, why is this HSC different from the others?  You have three different routes to choose from!  That’s right kids.  You can choose to go in with Magic, Speed, or Power.  It’s lovely.

So a couple things are different.  Once you leave a screen, you can’t go back to it.  Forward-moving only.  This means you are forced to choose one of the paths - Power, Magic, or Speed - and you can’t change your mind or double up for more points.  It also means planning your Special just got a whole lot harder, and you can’t just run straight for the hardest groups.

So which one do you pick?  What gives you the highest score?  THANKFULLY, they all give the exact same score!  I did the math.

So let’s break it down.  It looks like this:

                Start
        /          |          \
Power     Speed     Magic
     1            1             1
     2            2             2
     3            3             3
        \          |           /
               Target

This means there are 5 rooms no matter what path you take.  The start, the target, and three floors in between.

~*START*~ 
Lv 30 Shadow (Power) - 926
Lv 30 Soldier (Speed) - 926
Lv 30 Red Nocturne (Magic) - 926
Total: ~2,782 points
*totals are tested averages at 0% multiplier over three runs

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~*POWER*~
Red Room 1:
Lv 30 Red Gummi Copter x5 + Power Defense - 1389
Lv 30 Red Gummi Copter x5 + Power Defense - 1389
Lv 50 Bag O’ Coins x3 - 1846
Lv 50 Bag O’ Coins x3 - 1846
Special Chest x2
Health Chest x1

Red Room 2:
Lv 75 Armored Knight x2 & Lv 50 Bag O’ Coins - 8076
Lv 75 Armored Knight x2 & Lv 50 Bag O’ Coins - 8076
Lv 100 Defender & Lv 50 Bag O’ Coins - 18000
Lv 100 Defender & Lv 50 Bag O’ Coins - 18000
Special Chest x2
Health Chest x1

Red Room 3:
Lv 100 Defender & Lv 75 Armored Knight - 18000
Lv 100 Defender x2 - 18000
Lv 150 Fat Bandit x3 - 46875
Lv 230 Fat Bandit - 61875
Special Chest x3
Health Chest x1

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~*SPEED*~
Green Room 1:
Lv 30 Yellow Gummi Copter x5 + Speed Defense - 1389 
Lv 30 Yellow Gummi Copter x5 + Speed Defense - 1389
Lv 50 Bag O’ Jewels x3 - 1846
Lv 50 Bag O’ Jewels x3 - 1846
Special Chest x2
Health Chest x1

Green Room 2:
Lv 75 Armored Archer x2 & Lv 50 Bag O’ Jewels - 8076
Lv 75 Armored Archer x2 & Lv 50 Bag O’ Jewels - 8076
Lv 100 Air Soldier & Lv 50 Bag O’ Jewels - 18000
Lv 100 Air Soldier & Lv 50 Bag O’ Jewels - 18000
Special Chest x2
Health Chest x1

Green Room 3:
Lv 100 Air Soldier & Lv 75 Armored Archer - 18000
Lv 100 Air Soldier x2 - 18000
Lv 150 Invisible x3 - 46875
Lv 230 Invisible - 61875
Special Chest x3
Health Chest x1

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~*MAGIC*~
Blue Room 1:
Lv 30 Blue Gummi Copter x5 + Magic Defense - 1389
Lv 30 Blue Gummi Copter x5 + Magic Defense - 1389
Lv 50 Bag O’ Coal x3 - 1846
Lv 50 Bag O’ Coal x3 - 1846
Special Chest x2
Health Chest x1

Blue Room 2:
Lv 75 Wizard x2 & Lv 50 Bag O’ Coal - 8076
Lv 75 Wizard x2 & Lv 50 Bag O’ Coal - 8076
Lv 100 Fire Plant & Lv 50 Bag O’ Coal - 18000
Lv 100 Fire Plant & Lv 50 Bag O’ Coal - 18000
Special Chest x2
Health Chest x1

Blue Room 3:
Lv 100 Fire Plant & Lv 75 Wizard - 18000
Lv 100 Fire Plant x2 - 18000
Lv 150 High Wizard x3 - 46875
Lv 230 High Wizard - 61875
Special Chest x3
Health Chest x1

Room 1: ~25,020 points
Room 2: ~75,896 points
Room 3: ~278,133 points

~*TARGET*~
Lv 30 Soldier, Shadow, & Red Nocturne - 926
Special Chest x2
Health Chest x1
Total: ~2,788 points

By the time you’re done, you’re looking at about 385,000 points, give or take.  Then you use your multipliers!

So what do you get for all that reading?  Not a whole lot.  Magic mirrors, Attack Boosts, AB2s, Chips, Dales, one Cid, Nephews, and Moogles.  The Attack Boost II MAX at 600k is really good if you think you can make it that high!  But the real prizes come from the rankings.

Top 5000 get Second Chance and AB2MAX.  Top 1000 get two of each, and top 200 get three of each.  If you think you can score a Second Chance, that can be game changing in boss fights or Coliseum matches. (I missed out last month, so I’ll be working my butt off.)

If you aren’t going for rank, just do it for the early tier chips and dales and stuff. Plus Attack Boost II is at 300k, so that’s doable even without the level 230.

Strategy:
Pick your strongest suit, go with that.  I honestly think Olympia’s devastating multipliers and extra Special bars make it a winner.  Normally that means steering clear of Power, but in my opinion, Power is one of the easier paths.  I actually beat the Power route using Olympia with Power medals!

If you pick Power:
Bring Minnie and a heavy hitter.  Those Fat Bandits increase their defense with every turn.  Poison is your friend.

If you pick Speed:
Invisibles.  Defense Boost is a must, and Minnie or Paralysis will be necessary.  Get the 230 in his second or third health bar, then unleash hell.  They get attack buffs with low health, so if you don’t kill it, it WILL kill you.

If you pick Magic:
High Wizards are only a problem in numbers.  The 230 isn’t a huge deal, but if you don’t get Defense procs on those lightnings, they can take you down.  Minnie, DB, heavy single target.

For all three, in the 3v1 fight, take ONE out ASAP and if you can paralyze or DB the first assault you’ll be fine.

Honorary Mention: If you’ve got Roxas&Axel&Xion, that card is a literal godsend, especially in the Speed and Magic routes. 

[And here’s a video for my Speed route!]

Alright, that’s that!  Any questions send me a message.  Have a great event!  And good luck!

ENDS 9/26!

<3 KCM

KHUX Theater Mode: Episode 9 brings you one bangle, two Chirithys, and three fun minutes of KHUX!

KHUX Theater Mode: Episode 8 is up, wherein Snow White talks in needless rhymes.

KHUX Theater Mode: Episode 7 ready for action!  Those heartless just keep getting stronger.

KHUX Theater Mode: Episode 6 is live!

Chirithy’s Exposition Bonus Round!!  The foretellers, the Book of Prophecy, and the creation of Chirithy.